Trying to Avoid Getting Caught on the Wrong Wave

trying to avoid getting caught on the wrong wave

The next decade is going to be one of great change, with plenty of fast moving innovation, and Australia may end up trying to avoid getting caught on the wrong wave.

The growth of alt-power is going full steam ahead (pun intended) for the rest of the twenties, and beyond. Revenues in the Asia Pacific region from electric powertrains will rise from $3.7 billion last year to $68 billion in 2030 according to a survey by Interact Analysis.

These predictions will probably turn out to be quite inaccurate, but they are most likely to be a gross under-estimate, than an over-estimate. The momentum electric trucks are gaining elsewhere in the world is going at a smart pace and likely to accelerate hard over the next ten years.

Most of those areas where it is growing the fastest are in countries where there are substantial government incentives or a strict crack down on carbon emissions. Although, here in Australia, little to no incentives or initiatives have begun or are appearing on the horizon, there is some momentum building in the zero emission space.

A prolonged period of sticking our collective heads in the sand and waiting for it to go away has not done us any favours. Yes, we are a special case, and yes, we do not need to be world leaders in this field, but we do need to be ready.

The great Australian sport of surfing is probably a good analogy for the way Australia needs to go forward in a fast changing world, where technology is taking unpredictable leaps and bounds.

We don’t need to start paddling fast  too soon and get ahead of the development curve for zero emission vehicles. Investing in leading edge technology with our unforgiving climate and vast distances would be a profound error. We could end up ahead of the wave with tonnes of water or lots of inadequate technology on our hands. Let the concepts get proven elsewhere and then get adapted to the Aussie environment.

At the same time, we need to start paddling now to be in the right position on the wave when it does come the time to really push hard to catch the wave and use the new technology which is going to carry us in towards the beach successfully, while remaining relatively dry.

Like any good surfer we need to be out there carefully scanning the sets as they arrive and examining all of the possibilities. We need to be poised in exactly the right position to take advantage of our one chance to catch that perfect wave when it does come. And that wave is going to come whether we like it or not, and we need to be on it.

The world is going to radically change in the coming years and we need to be armed with the right information and invest in as much preparation for radical change as possible to make use of an inevitable revolution which is going to come along in the future.

We need to be prepared now in case things change faster than expected, but we also need to tread water if the wave of change takes longer than expected. The most important thing is we must be prepared, and not ignore all of the indications from around the world about how this is going to play out.

Surf’s Up!

trying to avoid getting caught on the wrong wave

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