The transition across to zero carbon road transport is going to throw up a number of issues along the way, and one aspect is likely to be around the trucking industry living with the rebound effect.
The effects of decarbonisation of the trucking industry are going to ripple through the entire supply chain and radically change the way the freight industry works. The changes are not going be the simple transfer of the energy used to drive the vehicles changing from diesel to electricity, hydrogen or hydrogenated vegetable oil, the effects will run on.
Hadi Ghaderi, Professor of Logistics and Supply Chain Management at Swinburne Business School presented his thinking around these issues at the Victorian Transport Association’s Alternative Fuel Summit. He’s an associate professor of logistics and supply chain management at Swinburne Business School.
Hadi works in the field of supply chain optimisation, as well as being part of projects in the field of supply chain digitalisation and decarbonisation for a range of industry and government clients, particularly those related to freight transport.
Hadi describes decarbonisation as the most complex challenge the freight industry is facing. He has been concentrating on some of the lesser known implications of the large uptake of zero emission vehicles.
“The rebound effect is a phenomenon that actually came originally from the energy market, but it has very important implications for freight transport,” said Hadi.
“In order to solve the net zero problem, we need joint collaborative work between both the freight and energy industries. In the last five to 10 years we have been seeing great results in the development of zero emission technologies.
“These technologies provide significant benefits to address our sustainability challenge. At the same time, we have seen a significant reduction in the cost of battery electric vehicles and other technologies as well. We’re also seeing an increase in internal combustion energy prices due to supply chain shortages and other challenges.
“It’s quite clear that the total cost of ownership of low and zero emission vehicles is reducing significantly. In some European countries, depending on the cost of energy, we have already seen that electric vans and light duty vehicles are cheaper to operate when compared to internal combustion powered ones.”
This situation brings great opportunities but also challenges and complexities as well. One of those is the rebound effect, in which consumption increases as a result of actions which increase efficiency and reduce consumer costs. The analogy here is the buyer of a new electric car which costs less to run than the petrol car will tend to drive more kilometres each week.
“What does this mean for the freight sector?” asked Hadi.
“Over the last 40 to 50 years the Australian freight task has grown by almost four times. And when we look at this in comparison to the growth in freight rates, we have seen the cost of freight has reduced over the last five decades. This is due to a reduction in transport costs, and an increase in freight activities.
“It’s quite clear if the total costs decrease, you can drive more and you can have an expanded distribution network. We now face 77 per cent projected growth in road freight between 2020 and 2050. Increased efficiency is a contributor to this growth in transport transport activity.
“This is one of the direct effects, higher efficiency, lower costs moving freight, which is not a bad thing necessarily, but it does bring challenges to infrastructure and other aspects of the network.”
